Conflict marks grim milestone with casualties nearing two million

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Four years since the Russia-Ukraine war erupted, hopes of peace remain elusive as the casualty count from both sides hits staggering levels.

On February 24, 2022, Russian troops, under the direction of President Vladimir Putin, launched a "special military operation" against their neighbouring Ukraine, expecting a swift victory.

But advances by the Russian army, which was hampered by poor logistical supplies and cumbersome command structures, quickly slowed.

READ MORE: Ukrainian families suffer as Russia targets power grid in record winter

The invaders met stubborn resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces which were aided by shipments of advanced weapons from their western allies.

Putin's hopes for speedy battlefield success and the removal of his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy melted away as the conflict became a bloody war of attrition.

A study published late last month by US think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows the Russian military, one of the world's largest, has borne the brunt of battlefield casualties.

The analysis estimates Russian forces suffered 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) and up to 325,000 killed between February 2022 and December 2025.

During the same period, the Ukrainian military likely suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including killed, wounded, and missing. Between 100,000 and 140,000 of the country's troops died.

READ MORE: Russia 'ready' for war with Europe, Putin says

The combined casualty toll from both sides could reach 2 million within weeks, by start of the northern hemisphere spring, according to the CSIS.

The figure is larger than the population of Adelaide, which had 1.4 million residents last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The CSIS analysts say the Russian casualty rates are staggering by any historical comparison: more than 17 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s: and 11 times higher than during Russia's first and second Chechen wars of the 1990s.

"No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II," their report said.

Equally daunting for Russia has been its army's sluggish advances on the battlefield, the study showed.

"After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 metres per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century."

What is the hope for peace?

In the lead-up to taking office last January, US President Donald Trump said he could end the war within one day by simply making a phone call.

But US-brokered peace efforts soon hit major hurdles.

Zelenskyy said the White House has set a June deadline for the war's end and will likely pressure both sides to meet it. But even as Trump appears eager for a peace deal before the US mid-term elections, challenges remain.

With Putin insisting on Ukraine's pullback from the industrial heartland of Donetsk and Zelenskyy ruling it out, a quick deal appears unlikely. Zelenskyy also expressed skepticism about a compromise US proposal to turn the eastern region into a free economic zone.

The Kremlin expects its attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, targeting energy infrastructure, will eventually will force Kyiv to accept Moscow's terms.

Ukraine hopes it can hold on until Trump loses patience and increases sanctions on Russia, forcing Putin to halt his aggression.

Both sides are also markedly split on the first steps to peace.

Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire along the existing line of contact. But Putin, who aims to create a pro-Russian state of Ukraine, rules out a truce, demanding a comprehensive peace agreement.

All this is little comfort to the people of Ukraine who now face a fifth year of fighting in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

- With Associated Press 

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